World Cup 2022: Winning 2 out of 3 Group Matches but Failing to Advance?
Unlikely, but mathematically possible… and it’s happened before!
In the group stage of the world cup, countries are placed in groups of 4 and play one match against each of the 3 other countries in the group. The 2 top ranked teams from each group then proceed to the knockout stage. You would think that winning 2 out of 3 of these group matches would be enough to keep your country safe, right?
Well, actually… no!
First, here’s a little more detail on how the group stage rankings are decided. A win earns 3 points, a draw earns 1 point, and a loss earns no points. If 3 teams have equal points, then goal difference is used to select the top 2 teams. (There are further rules if goal differences are also equal, but this is enough for our purpose.)
Consider what happens if one team loses all 3 matches. This immediately means that the 3 other teams in the group have at least one win. Now, if these 3 teams all win one more match in a “triangle”, they are now ranked equal with 2 wins (6 points) each.
